Chinese Investment: Thunder but no Rain

China Transactional Lawyers

Our China transactional lawyers often work on deals involving the foreign subsidiary of a Chinese parent company. When we raise the issue of getting paid on these deals, our clients sometimes insist these deals are secure for two reasons. First, the contract is enforceable in the United States so there is no need to deal with the Chinese legal system. Second, the Chinese parent is sitting on a pile of cash and if its U.S. subsidiary cannot pay its debts, the U.S. based contract will force the Chinese parent company to bail out the subsidiary. Sadly, this premise is just wrong.

Consider this very real scenario. A (formerly) cash rich Chinese company forms a Virgin Islands subsidiary. That subsidiary then sells bonds on the international market. To repay the bonds, the subsidiary must pay in dollars or whatever foreign currency the bonds are denominated.

The Virgin Island subsidiary does not do any real business. The basis of the bond valuation is that the parent Chinese entity is sitting on a pile of RMB in China. When the bonds are due, if the VI subsidiary is unable to roll over the bonds or find alternative financing, it is assumed the Chinese parent company will convert its RMB to dollars and then remit those dollars to its VI subsidiary. Because of this “the parent will cover it” assumption, the bonds are priced at investment grade. (For purposes of this analysis we will assume the pile of cash held by the Chinese parent company is real, though often it is not. But that is another story).

The fundamental issue is that the Chinese parent does not have the power to freely carry out the conversion from RMB to dollars. The Chinese government has the right not to allow the RMB/dollar conversion for payment on the bonds because it wants the RMB to stay in China. The Chinese government might deny this RMB conversion because it was a speculative venture and it will not allow PRC foreign exchange reserves to be depleted to cover that speculation. “Invest your RMB at home or at least repay your creditors at home,” it might tell the Chinese parent company.

As a result of the Chinese government prohibiting the conversion and off shore remittance the subsidiary will have no ability to pay on the bonds and it will default if no alternative funding source is found. We are assuming that the parent has plenty of cash in the form of RMB, so it is not a matter of the parent company not having the resources to pay its debt to its foreign bondholders. The issue is that the Chinese government will not ALLOW the group company to pay its debts.

Something along the lines described above actually happened in the case of one of China’s largest and best known companies — Wanda. There was a credible threat the PRC government would not allow offshore remittances to cover payment on Wanda foreign bonds. For this reason, the Wanda foreign denominated bonds have been reduced to junk status by all the rating companies (BB or lower). Junk status means the chance of a rollover or other funding alternative is relatively low. This is a problem for Wanda, but it is even worse for the original owners of the bonds.

Our China lawyers are often called on to review deals with VIE entities formed in the Cayman or the Virgin Islands. The Chinese side of the VIE asserts that it is sitting on a mountain of cash. This assertion pumps up the value of the foreign issued stock. But when the shareholders insist the cash be remitted offshore for distribution to shareholders, the Chinese side nearly always states: we would really like to do that, but the Chinese government will not allow us. Sorry.

The takeaway from all this should be that if you are doing a financing or other project with a subsidiary of a Chinese company, you cannot rely on payment support from the Chinese parent company. If the Chinese parent company’s money is not already in a bank account outside China, even if the mountain of cash exists, there is no certainty that  money will be permitted to leave China. In fact, the most likely scenario is that the cash will not be permitted to leave China. Why should debts to foreigners be paid when there is plenty of need for the funds in China?

This then relates to the question of the reliability of investment from Chinese companies in general. Big Chinese companies are fond of making announcements regarding their huge investment plans. People (especially Western businesspeople) rely on these announcements, but in the end nothing happens. The Chinese investment community has a term for this: “We heard the thunder and we saw the lightening, but we never felt the rain.” That is, until the money is in the bank, never believe a thing. The Chinese don’t, so why should you?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *