The Denver Post ran a story Sunday on the high rents marijuana businesses have to deal with nationwide. In Portland, for example, rental property that typically goes for five dollars per square foot goes for three times that amount for cannabis businesses. Though rents for cannabis businesses in Washington and Colorado are stable, they are still well above the market rate. Real estate investors looking to lease to cannabis businesses are gambling that this trend will continue.
There are several things pushing up cannabis rents, many of which are discussed in the Denver Post article, all of which decrease the available supply of cannabis real estate. Any property with an existing deed of trust or mortgage held by a financial institution runs some extra risks. The vast majority of mortgages contain a clause mandating that the property only be used lawfully. If a property has a cannabis business use on it, the bank can call the loan in default and accelerate the principal so it’s all due immediately and giving the bank right to foreclose if the borrower cannot find alternative financing. Many cannabis businesses are at locations with mortgages now, and banks are tacitly accepting the businesses so long as the legal climate doesn’t change. If the legal climate does change and federal law enforcement becomes a real threat, the banks holding notes on cannabis properties could well use the legal changes as their opportunity to call their note in default, either getting their money back or allowing them to foreclose. Because of this threat from banks, most cannabis businesses prefer to lease property owned outright (without any bank note), and most landlords with financed property prefer to lend to businesses that are federally legal.
The hodge-podge of state and local cannabis regulations also tends to drive up the price of cannabis business real estate. State laws that limit how close cannabis businesses can be to a school, a park, a church, or another cannabis business also limits the number of properties available to cannabis businesses. When you add in local zoning codes that often push cannabis businesses to heavy industrial areas and building codes that often require cannabis production facilities to have full fire suppression and air quality systems in place, the list of available properties for the marijuana industry plummets even further. With so many marijuana businesses fighting for so few spaces, it is no wonder real estate prices skyrocket.
Finally, there is still a ton of money being invested into cannabis real estate from out of state and foreign investors. Many marijuana licensees lack sufficient capital to build out growing facilities, and they look to turn-key real estate opportunities, often with deferred rent, where they are expected to pay out the nose when they start making revenue. These higher-priced turn key facilities tend to increase the price ceiling even for landlords that only offer bare warehouse space. Hardly a day goes by where one of my firm’s cannabis business attorneys does not get a call from someone on the East Coast asking us about cannabis real estate opportunities in Washington, Oregon, or California. Even public companies are involved in the turnkey cannabis real estate market, including Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc., a cannabis related REIT that did an IPO on the NYSE just a few days ago.
So, is the upward trend in cannabis real estate likely to continue? Real estate investors are showing signs of skepticism. Innovative Industrial Properties didn’t have the strongest IPO, raising $67 million when it hoped for $175 million. The media has tended to blame President-elect Trump’s choice of Jeff Sessions to run the Justice Department, which is a real concern for everyone, but there may be other factors at work.
In Washington State, cannabis businesses that are renting warehouse space in heavily populated King and Pierce counties are facing fierce competition from outdoor growers from eastern Washington. Outdoor grown marijuana has long been perceived to be inferior to indoor-cultivated product, but outdoor growers are rapidly developing techniques to increase the quality and consistency of their products. The continued trend toward oils and other concentrates also puts downward pressure on the relative value of crafted indoor product.
Outdoor spaces, especially in rural counties, tend to be significantly cheaper than urban or suburban warehouse space. If more growers see those areas as real alternatives, warehouse prices may fall. And even if the Trump-Sessions administration makes policy choices that decreases the availability and increases the price of cannabis real estate, the long-term trend is still toward legality, with cannabis looking more like other businesses. As the cannabis industry “normalizes,” we should expect lease rates for cannabis businesses to fall more in line with lease rates for other businesses. Real estate investors should be careful not to overpay based on their assuming the current cannabis leasing market will last forever.
What are you seeing out there? What are your thoughts on where cannabis real estate is heading?